Canadian Luxury Real Estate Strongholds Defy Trade War Turmoil

Montreal and Calgary resilient amidst national housing slowdown; Toronto’s ultra-luxury buyers defy market trends as Vancouver cools

/EIN News/ -- Toronto , May 07, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) --

2025 First Quarter Highlights

• A fragile rebound in consumer confidence and real estate activity unravelled in the first quarter of 2025, as the escalating Canada–U.S. trade war and threats to the Canadian economy sidelined homebuyers and sellers, leaving only isolated pockets of resilience in the housing market.

• The Greater Toronto Area ultra-luxury residential market defied broader regional housing trends, posting year-over-year gains with five properties sold over $10 million on MLS® in the first three months of 2025, compared to the fact that there were no sales above this price point in the same period last year. However, luxury sales over $4 million saw an annual decline of 15% overall.  

• Despite volatile oil prices and mounting uncertainty, Calgary remained a sales stronghold across both conventional and luxury markets as population gains bolstered demand. Residential sales over $1 million held steady with a modest 2% year-over-year gain in the first quarter, while one property sold over $4 million, compared to two sold in the first quarter of 2024. 

• Montreal outperformed national trends as interest rate declines spurred upward mobility in the entry-level top-tier housing market. Sales over $1 million were up 11% year-over-year in the first quarter, while $4 million-plus sales were unchanged year-over-year at eight properties sold.  

• Despite a brief January uptick, consumer sentiment in Vancouver took a downturn in February, leading to a 48% year-over-year drop in first-quarter sales over $4 million, as both buyers and sellers held off on transactions. 

• While the $1 million-plus condominium markets in the cities of Toronto and Vancouver posted annual declines of 20% and 27% respectively in the first quarter, Montreal and Calgary’s top-tier market defied the trend, with first-quarter sales up 27% and 13% respectively.
  

A promising rebound in Canadian real estate early at the start of 2025 was swiftly derailed by rising Canada–U.S. trade tensions, the threat and implementation of tariffs and counter-tariffs, and growing macroeconomic volatility. Although these shocks to the country’s housing market fundamentals resulted in a broad pullback in residential transactions, segments of Canada’s metropolitan luxury real estate sector showed surprising resilience, underscoring the strength of select markets and consumer groups in the face of turmoil. As the broader housing market braces for greater uncertainty this spring, select luxury segments stand out as outliers of greater stability – and may still emerge as breakout performers in an otherwise darkening landscape.

According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada’s Top-Tier Real Estate: Spring 2025 State of Luxury Report, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) ultra-luxury market for properties over $10 million stood out as one of the nation’s rare real estate strongholds in the first quarter of 2025, defying a general pullback across the broader housing market amidst growing economic turbulence. While residential real estate sales over $4 million (condominiums, attached and single family homes) and $1 million saw annual declines of 15% and 29%, transactions over $10 million increased year-over-year. As ultra-high-net-worth homebuyers in the country’s largest regional economy demonstrated strategic adaptability and financial resilience, five properties sold over $10 million on Multiple Listings Service (MLS) between January 1– March 31 where none had sold in the first quarter of 2024. Private and off-market sales over $10 million also strengthened, according to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts. 
Calgary's luxury real estate market remains well-positioned to withstand tariff threats and economic risks given its growth momentum from 2024. Following a record-setting population boom in 2024 that boosted Calgary’s population by 6.14% year-over-year, the city remains positioned for growth in 2025, as the province of Alberta, added 28,496 new residents in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the last quarter of 2024 according to Statistics Canada, the largest net gain of population over other Canadian provinces and territories. This positioned Calgary’s luxury market as an outlier for growth in the first quarter of 2025, as residential sales over $1 million achieved an uptick of 2% year-over-year. One property sold over $4 million, compared to two sold in the first quarter of 2024. 
Montreal’s housing market outperformed national trends and stood out for steady sales activity across all property types in the first quarter of the year. Falling interest rates unleashed pent-up consumer demand across the city’s conventional market as its relatively affordable cost of housing facilitated purchases. This further enabled upward housing mobility into the city’s top-tier and luxury segments. Despite a pullback mid-quarter, between January 1– March 31 residential sales over $1 million increased 11% year-over-year and the market leaned in favour of sellers overall. Residential sales over $4 million were stable with first quarter 2024 levels at eight properties sold. 
Despite an initial uptick in sales activity at the start of 2025, activity across Vancouver’s conventional and luxury residential market stalled as the threat of tariffs reverberated across the city’s lagging economy. As waning confidence in the job and housing delayed buying activity, the accumulation of property listings across the housing market entrenched buyers’ market conditions. As a result, residential sales over $4 million were down 48% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, with none of these recorded over $10 million on MLS, on par with the first quarter of 2024. Overall, $1 million-plus residential sales declined 30% year-over-year. These represented the most significant annual declines for luxury residential sales out of Canada’s major metropolitan real estate markets. 
“The Canada-U.S. trade dispute has cast a shadow over consumer confidence and housing market activity, contributing to a broad-based slowdown in both conventional and luxury real estate sales this spring," says Effi Barak, President of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. "Yet, even amid this uncertainty, select segments of the top-tier market remain resilient—driven by pent-up local demand, population growth, and enduring appeal among financially secure luxury buyers. These markets also benefit from competitive advantages relative to other Canadian cities."

"Toronto’s ultra-luxury single-family home market, particularly in its most prestigious neighbourhoods, remains poised for activity," adds Barak. "While buyers are increasingly selective—negotiating assertively and prepared to wait for the 'perfect' home—there is underlying strength in this segment. Meanwhile, Montreal has exceeded expectations this spring, standing out across luxury condominiums, attached, and single-family home sales. The recent easing of interest rates has unlocked upward mobility for sidelined buyers and reinforced Montreal’s momentum. Calgary’s top-tier market has also shown continued resilience, buoyed by population growth and renewed confidence following record-setting gains in 2024." 

According to Barak, the luxury condominium markets in Vancouver and Toronto are evolving into compelling long-term opportunities. Elevated inventory levels, soft demand, and the retreat of smaller-scale investors are placing downward pressure on prices, creating advantageous conditions for well-positioned buyers. “For those willing to navigate short-term volatility, this market offers strong long-term value potential. As U.S. tariffs and Canadian countermeasures drive up construction costs, a slowdown in new development will constrain future supply—ultimately supporting the value of existing condominium stock.”

Vancouver 

Vancouver’s luxury housing market showed cautious optimism to start the year, but this sentiment rapidly faded upon the imposition of U.S. tariffs. Canada’s escalating trade war with the U.S., a weakening outlook for the local economy and stringent housing policies and regulations all contributed to stifling consumer confidence and activity. Although the lower end of the luxury market saw some movement as buyers renewed their activity with monetary policy easing, both buyers and sellers remained hesitant overall, concerned about the impact of these geopolitical issues on the city’s economy, job market and housing values. As a result, Vancouver’s overall housing market cooled over the first quarter, weighed down by recent shocks. 

According to Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) residential sales in Metro Vancouver were down 13% year-over-year, while the number of properties listed for sale increased close to 38% compared to March 2024.   Within the City of Vancouver’s luxury market, the first quarter of 2025 saw residential sales over $4 million (condominiums, attached and single family homes) decline by 48% year-over-year from the first quarter of 2024 to 33 properties sold. There were no ultra-luxury $10 million sales on Multiple Listing Services (MLS) during this time, as was the case in the first quarter of 2024. 723 residential properties sold over $1 million between January 1– March 31, a substantial 30% year-over-year shortfall. Property sales between $1 million– $2 million continued to comprise the majority of the city’s $1 million-plus residential real estate market, accounting for 69% of these top-tier sales, up from 64% at the same time last year. 

Despite a cooling market, single family homes continue to dominate as the top choice for Vancouver's luxury homebuyers, accounting for 94% of residential sales over $4 million in the city. However, luxury single family home sales over $4 million fell 47% year-over-year from the first quarter of 2024 to 31 properties sold. There were no ultra-luxury single family homes sold over $10 million reported in the first quarter of 2025, unchanged from the same period last year. Overall, sales of single family homes over $1 million were down 34% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, with 254 homes sold.

The city’s luxury condominium market remained soft in the first quarter of 2025, and buyers’ market conditions deepened as economic uncertainty discouraged sales activity despite mounting supply.  Two condominiums sold over $4 million between January 1– March 31, down from five units sold in the first quarter of 2024, and there were no transactions recorded over $10 million, as was the case in the first quarter of last year. Overall, condominium sales over $1 million saw a significant 27% drop year-over-year drop to 236 units sold in the first quarter. Although sales transactions in the $1 million – $2 million segment fell 23% year-over-year, their share of the city’s $1 million-plus condominium market increased to 90% in the first quarter, up from 85% during the same period last year.  

Lack of “missing middle” housing supply continues to constrain top-tier attached home sales, while uncertainty over the economy deterred potential “move-up” homebuyers and home sellers. As a result, in the first quarter of 2025, there were no attached homes sold over $4 million, down from one sale in the first quarter of 2024. Overall, attached home sales over $1 million fell 28% year-over-year to 233 properties sold between January 1– March 31.

While Vancouver’s luxury housing market shows signs of brightening, it will remain firmly in buyers’ territory this spring, according to experts at Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. Slow sales velocity is expected to result in a further build-up of inventory, particularly in the condominium segment where smaller-scale investors are struggling with a softer rental and residential resale market, and in some cases, deciding to sell and minimize short-term losses. With ample options, lax competition and prices facing downward pressure, prospective buyers will continue to wield the upper hand. Sellers aiming to succeed will need to present high-quality properties at competitive prices, as quality will continue to drive transactions, even in a slower market. In a season defined by uncertainty and caution, those who prioritize adaptability and uncompromising quality will be best positioned to succeed—whether buying or selling.

Calgary

The City of Calgary emerged as Canada’s leader in luxury real estate growth in 2024, surpassing Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal in annual percentage gains for high-end property transactions. In the first quarter of 2025, as Canada braced for the economic impact of a deepening trade war with the U.S., the momentum of previous market activity, combined with the pressures of population growth combined to support greater resilience across Calgary’s luxury housing market relative to major cities such as Toronto and Vancouver. However, Calgary has not been immune to economic and political turmoil. Moderating consumer confidence and a slowdown in sales activity towards the end of the first quarter signal greater caution and balance for the spring while creating a more favourable climate for prospective buyers fatigued by last year’s frenetic competition

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB), overall residential sales fell 17% year-over-year in the City of Calgary in the first quarter of 2025. In the month of March, inventory had increased by a notable 102% year-over-year across all housing segments, with monthly supply levels up by 149% year-over-year to 2.39 months. Meanwhile, Calgary’s luxury real estate market maintained steady activity for the first three months of this year across all housing segments, as a shortage of $1 million-plus property listings resulted in sellers’ market conditions in several high-end neighbourhoods. Overall, luxury residential real estate sales over $1 million (single family homes, attached homes and condominiums) increased by 2%, with 450 properties sold compared to the first quarter of 2024. One transaction was reported over $4 million, down from two properties sold in the same period last year. There were no transactions yet reported over $10 million, on par with the first quarter of 2024.  

In the first three months of 2025, Calgary’s top-tier single family homes accounted for 80% of real estate transactions over $1 million, underscoring their continued desirability as the most sought-after luxury housing type. Overall, sales over $1 million held steady, decreasing by a minimal 2% year-over-year to 358 properties sold from January 1 – March 31, with one home sold over $4 million compared to two sold in the same months of 2024.

The city’s luxury attached home market experienced moderate gains in the first three months of this year, driven partially by retirees seeking to “right-size”, and first-time, entry-level luxury home buyers unable to secure a foothold in the single family home market. Overall, luxury attached home sales over $1 million increased 25% year-over-year, with 75 homes sold. Consistent with the first quarter of 2024, there were no homes sold in the $4 million-plus segment of the market. 

Although Calgary's broader condominium market saw an overall 29% annual decline in overall sales in the first quarter, with supply up by 99% year-over-year in the month of March, the $1 million-plus condominium segment saw modest gains. Overall, luxury sales over $1 million increased 13% year-over-year to 17 properties sold from January 1 – March 31, all in the $1 million– $2 million range. Consistent with the first three months of 2024, there were no homes sold over $4 million. Although condominiums comprised just 4% of $1 million-plus residential sales in the city, the market continues to solidify as in-migration and immigration from other major cities, as well as changing demographics, broaden local demand for high-density, urban living. 

According to Sotheby's International Realty Canada experts, continued population gains in Alberta will bolster the conventional and luxury housing markets in its major cities, and Calgary particularly, this spring. The province recorded an additional 28,496 new residents in the first quarter of this year compared to the final quarter of 2024 according to Statistics Canada, the largest net gain of population of Canada’s provinces and territories. While U.S. tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory tariffs pose significant challenges and will dampen consumer sentiment and sales activity, population inflows are expected to offset some of these effects, helping to stabilize the market and absorb rising property listings.  This will help balance Calgary’s top-tier market into the second quarter of 2025.

Greater Toronto Area

Following steady improvement in sales activity over the fourth quarter of 2024, the luxury residential real estate market in the Greater Toronto Area (Durham, Halton, Peel, Toronto, and York) closed 2024 with solid annual gains, with $4 million and $10 million residential real estate sales climbing 21% and 20%, year-over-year. However, this cautious recovery in consumer confidence and real estate momentum was abruptly derailed in the first quarter of 2025, as rising Canada-U.S. trade tensions and deepening economic anxiety drove homebuyers and sellers to the sidelines—leaving only pockets of resilience in the region’s ultra-luxury market. 

Despite an initially optimistic forecast by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) that lower borrowing costs would drive higher home sales in 2025, TRREB reported annual residential sales declines of 27% in February and 23% in March.  Sales of luxury properties priced above $4 million (condominiums, attached, and single family homes) also declined by 15% year-over-year, with 90 transactions recorded across the GTA between January 1– March 31. Sales of $1 million-plus properties fell 29% over the same period to 5,479 units sold. The sale of properties between $1 million– $2 million continued to comprise the vast majority of the $1 million-plus residential market in the GTA, accounting for 86% of top-tier sales in the first quarter, on par with the same period last year. 

In stark contrast, the region’s ultra-luxury segment demonstrated striking resilience, with sales of properties priced above $10 million experiencing a notable year-over-year increase both on Multiple Listings Service (MLS) and privately. Between January 1 and March 31, five properties sold over $10 million on MLS in the GTA– all single family homes– compared to the fact that there were no residential sales transactions above this price point in the first quarter of 2024. This trend was particularly evident in the City of Toronto, where four of the $10 million-plus home sales took place. In comparison, first-quarter sales of properties over $4 million and $1 million declined 5% and 16% year-over-year respectively in the City of Toronto, totaling 56 and 1,923 transactions. 

According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts, the region’s ultra-luxury property buyers remain largely insulated from economic headwinds, bolstered by strong cash reserves. As a result, some of the Greater Toronto Area’s most prestigious single family homes continue to change hands swiftly, a trend that is particularly evident in high-demand neighbourhoods with constrained inventory, such as Rosedale, Forest Hill, Cabbagetown, and Leslieville. Experts have also highlighted a notable rise in “off-market” transactions within the ultra-luxury segment, as sellers of properties exceeding $10 million increasingly prioritize privacy in the sales process and forego listing on MLS.

Overall, the demand for single family homes remained primary within the region’s luxury residential housing market, a reflection of the trending tastes, investment preferences and lifestyle needs of high-end consumers.  Despite this underlying demand, single family home sales over $4 million pulled back by 20% year-over-year to 78 homes sold in the GTA between January 1– March 31, while sales over $1 million declined 30% year-over-year to 3,932 units sold in the first quarter. In contrast, five single family homes sold over $10 million on MLS in the first quarter of 2025, in comparison to a quiet first quarter in 2024 when no properties changed hands. 

In the City of Toronto, luxury single family home sales over $4 million were down 14% year-over-year to 44 properties sold between January 1– March 31, while overall, $1 million-plus single family home sales saw an annual decline of 18% in the first quarter of 2025 with 1,151 homes sold. There were four transactions above $10 million on MLS, up from zero properties sold in the first quarter of the previous year.

The GTA’s top-tier attached home market saw a decline in activity as buyers gravitated toward alternative options. Many opted for single family homes, driven by an investment-focused mindset, while others turned to condominiums, where increasing inventory provided greater choice and stronger negotiating leverage. Between January 1– March 31, 1,127 homes sold over $1 million, down 26% from sales levels in the first quarter of 2024. However, four attached homes sold over $4 million across the region during this time, all in the City of Toronto, double the units sold in this price range in the first quarter of 2024.  As was the case in the same period last year, there were no transactions above $10 million during this time. Overall, first quarter sales of $1 million-plus attached home sales in the City of Toronto were down 9% year-over-year to 462 homes sold.

Buyer-friendly conditions cemented across the Greater Toronto Area’s $1 million-plus condominium market in the first quarter of 2025, creating an environment of reduced competition and increased negotiating power for prospective buyers.  The decline in sales activity can be attributed to unstable economic conditions that have dampened demand in the entry-level top-tier market, as well as multiple policy and taxation changes– such as the extension of the Foreign Buyers' Ban to 2027 and an increase in the Land Transfer Tax for properties over $3 million in Toronto – that have driven local and international investors from the market.  Overall, 420 condominium units sold over $1 million in the GTA in the first three months of 2025, an annual decline of 24%.  310 of these units sold within the City of Toronto, down 20% year-over-year.  Although there were no condominiums sales over $10 million on MLS across the GTA in the first quarter of 2025, as was the case in the first quarter of 2024, sales of luxury $4 million remained resilient despite softening conditions.  Between January 1– March 31, eight condominiums sold over $4 million across the region compared to seven units sold over the same period of 2024. All of these transactions took place within the City of Toronto, up from the six condominiums sold above $4 million in the city in the first quarter of 2024.  

As prospective sellers and buyers navigate a new era of economic volatility this spring, Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts are forecasting a season of hyper-cautious listing and sales activity across the conventional and luxury real estate market.  Although buyers’ market conditions are anticipated across the luxury market, prices are expected to remain stable overall. Further, pockets of resilience are expected in select ultra-luxury single family home neighbourhoods.  Within these enclaves where quality property listings are scarce, and for specific bespoke properties that meet exacting, quality standards, well-capitalized buyers remain poised to move quickly. Such “bright spots”, however, are likely to remain anomalies in a housing market where subdued sales are set to persist through the spring.

Montreal 
The City of Montreal defied national housing trends in the first quarter of 2025, as declining interest rates fueled upward mobility into the top-tier market. As local buyers seized opportunities to upgrade within a housing market that has remained affordable compared to other major Canadian cities, they injected new energy and activity across the market. Overall, even though broader economic uncertainty and the implementation of U.S. trade tariffs slowed sales across the conventional and luxury markets in March, Montreal is adapting to the shocks and cautious optimism continues to prevail as buyers and sellers navigate complex conditions.

Sales were up 14% in the first three months of 2025 in the Montreal Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) compared to the same period last year, according to the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers. Moreover, sales growth outstripped new listings growth as buyers looking for quality listings snapped them up faster than they could come to market. The median price of single family, condominium and multiplex housing in the Montreal CMA was also up 3%, 5% and 10% year-over-year respectively for the first quarter. 

This market strength has transferred to the luxury real estate market. Overall, between January 1– March 31, residential sales over $1 million (condominiums, attached and single family homes) in the City of Montreal increased 11% year-over-year, with 420 properties sold. 82% of the city’s $1 million-plus properties were sold in the entry-level $1 million–$2 million range, a slightly lower share than in the first quarter of 2024, when 84% of top-tier properties sold in this range. Luxury sales over $4 million totalled eight properties in the first quarter of 2025, unchanged from the same period last year. No ultra luxury homes over $10 million were sold in the first quarter of 2025, as was the case in the first quarter of 2024.

Single family homes remained the property of choice for luxury buyers in Montreal in the first quarter of 2025 and comprised 39% of the city’s $1 million-plus real estate market.  Between January 1– March 31, single family home sales over $1 million held relatively steady, with a 1% year-over-year uptick to 164 homes sold. Eight single family homes sold over $4 million during this time, up from six sold in this price range in the first quarter of 2024. There were no ultra-luxury single family home sales over $10 million yet recorded in the first quarter of 2025

Attached home sales over $1 million grew 12% year-over-year, totalling 132 properties sold in the first three months of the year. All of these sales took place in the $1 million– $4 million segment of the top-tier market, with sales between $1 million–$2 million comprising 83% of $1 million-plus transactions.  Limited supply in the luxury single-family home market redirected buyers toward higher-density options, such as attached units, particularly among those eager to relocate or return to Montreal.

The luxury condominium market saw notable growth as an increasing supply of high-quality units attracted buyers. Condominium sales over $1 million surged 27% year-over-year to 124 properties—the largest increase among all luxury home segments. However, there were no sales that exceeded $4 million in the first quarter of 2025, compared to two such sales during the same period last year. Therefore, the 29% year-over-year rise in sales of $1 million–$4 million units drove overall growth in Montreal's luxury condo market. Declining interest rates and an expanded inventory of premium properties in highly desirable areas contributed to this robust performance.

Montreal saw the highest annual percentage increase in top-tier condominium sales among Canada’s major metropolitan markets, including Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary, in the first quarter of 2025. Overall, condominium sales over $1 million climbed 27% year-over-year to 124 properties sold, the fastest rate of growth of all top-tier housing types in the city. This outpaced Calgary, where $1 million-plus condominium sales increased 13% year over year, as well as the City of Toronto and the City of Vancouver which saw annual sales declines of 20% and 27% respectively.  However, there were no condominium sales recorded over $4 million in Montreal during this time, compared to two such sales during the same period last year. Declining interest rates, relatively top-tier condominium prices and an expanded inventory of premium properties in highly desirable areas have supported entry-level top-tier condominium purchases and contributed to this robust performance.

According to experts at Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, Montreal’s luxury housing market is well-positioned to remain resilient this spring, even though real estate buyers and sellers will continue to grapple with the effects of U.S. tariffs on Canada’s economy. With a shortage of property listings supplying over $4 million as some property sellers delay listing their homes, conditions are anticipated to linger on the cusp of sellers’ market conditions, with property prices holding steady. The entry-level luxury market is expected to reflect greater caution, and rising inventory may tilt currently balanced conditions in favour of buyers this spring. Overall, however, the city is confronting broader economic uncertainty with cautious optimism and top-tier sales are expected to remain steady in the season ahead.

About Sotheby's International Realty Canada
Combining the world's most prestigious real estate brand with local market knowledge and specialized marketing expertise, Sotheby's International Realty Canada is the leading real estate sales and marketing company for the country's most exceptional properties. With offices in over 35 residential and resort markets nationwide, our professional associates provide the highest caliber of real estate service, unrivalled local and international marketing solutions and a global affiliate sales network of approximately 1,100 offices in 83+ countries and territories to manage the real estate portfolios of discerning clients from around the world. For further information, visit www.sothebysrealty.ca.

Disclaimer
The information contained in this report references market data from MLS® boards across Canada. Sotheby's International Realty Canada cautions that MLS market data can be useful in establishing trends over time but does not indicate actual prices in widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differentials within local markets. This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information and analysis presented in this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Sotheby's International Realty Canada or Sotheby's International Realty Affiliates for any loss or damage resulting from any use of, reliance on, or reference to the contents of this document.

Talk Shop Media
                    Victoria Levy
                    victoria@talkshopmedia.com 
                    604-738-2220